The NHC continues to make gabrielle an overachiever as the official forecast
for gabrielle on Friday night had gabrielle becoming a hurricane on Monday but
surprise, surprise, Felix the Cat 2 Himmacane decided to pull one out of
his bag of tricks! See, another example of the uncertainties of weather
and storm forecasting. While we have made huge strides over the last 3
decades in hurricane forecasting, mother nature and other factors
contribute weather characteristics still not fully understood or
explained.
Gabrielle is giving the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao an
unexpected brush as these islands historically do not experience the full
brunt of any tropical system as has been shown over the last 113 years.
Very dry Aruba could could benefit the most rain-wise but flooding is a
potential issue.
Flooding, mudslides, and landslides will be a definite issue when gabrielle
reaches Honduras, Nicaragua and Belize as a potential Cat 3. An eye has
been trying to form this morning which is a good indication of
strengthening and even interaction with the South American coast is not
helping to slow gabrielle down. It's forward speed will help keep the rainfall
totals down but the mountainous regions of Central America could be in for
a rough time.
Once again, as with Dean, those 400 or so oil rigs off the Mexican coast
will have to be evacuated and that will probably cause a spike in world
oil prices and hence, our wallets!
Back to the east we look and I am not particularly happy with the way 98I
looks. The computer models, having plugged in the fact this wave is a bit
farther to the north, have not swung it out to open sea but have it coming
to the Antilles as well, with possible impacts at the end of this coming
week around the northern islands. Hey, we prepared already for Dean (I
hope most of you did anyhow) and we should be ready should a Gabrielle get
her act together. So far, only the himmacane's have received all the
attention and for good reason. It's not far-fetched to realize a hurricane
wants a piece of 2007 storm season history as well.
